The cycle gurus always mean "on a closing end of day basis" when they say "if support holds". Today's break is therefore by definition a significant event and possibly a game changer for the cycle gurus. Sure we have nonfarm payrolls tomorrow and it could be a risk on love fest and EUR/USD surges again - but if it doesn't, then the cycle gurus' first red flag has been hoisted.
They did qualify that once EUR/USD had made their anticipated high that "the euro should decline for a week before the uptrend resumes" and it would be extremely easy to argue that in a week's time the market has turned a blind eye to Draghi's hints and are focusing on dovish coos from bernanke trying to assuage the damage from fiscal cliff gridlock. In such an event, losse policy vs loose policy, EUR/USD should remain in a trading range and maybe the next part of the cycle gurus' forecast comes to fruition :-
"A close above 1.3150 will confirm a strong upmove into the week of December 31. Our further objective for the uptrend is the 1.3325 area. It will take a close below 1.2880 to signal a significant peak has been seen ahead of schedule. Even if this happens, any significant weakness in the euro should not occur until early January, but it should then head erratically lower to February, falling to the 1.2450 area."
As we are on the cusp of "silly season" where liquidity is drained from markets and predatory accounts abuse them, running stops, popping barriers, touching DNTs et al, volatility is a familiar sight this time of the year. It's normally either extremely volatile or as dead as a Dodo it is rarely "normal". Yesterday our black box chum nailed the market quite well, 1.3045 was the O/N low and he was calling for initial downside targets between 1.3037 to 1.3025.
Once the ECB meeting starts, all bets are off and that's when those targets became nullified. His secondary target was 1.2925 - today's low so far 1.2950. Now that's a nice call with spot trading at 1.3075/90 ish when he sent his forecasts over. Now if Brian's call is right (and he's been pretty uncanny lately, he's now built a few more notches on his 20 for 20 record) Then the gurus' second big red flag "1.2880" should remain intact.
It's hard to sell EUR/USD down here from a risk event horizon basis, given non-farm payrolls is due, so we would not advise that. However when we do step back and survey the cycle gurus' underlying message about where they see things from a cycle perspective, it's clear that risk reward favours fading a pop. After all they say if 1.2880 holds we can go up to 1.3150 (been almost there already) and may have a shot at 1.3325 - then yours - down t0 the 1.2450 area. Strategically, cyclically, EUR/USD is a better sell than a buy. If you do buy it for that quick pop to 1.3125/1.3325, their suggestion is be ready for a quick sentiment shift.
If they're right it would intimate the sell off is a false dawn and on that dip you have to buy - the new year typically sees strong directional flow inversely to trend direction in the first 3-5 weeks of trading. Alternately, if their support levels break (1.2880) then the false dawn could just as easily be a Euro rally that fizzles out.Given year end approaches and IMM positioning whilst lighter, remains short EUR it's hard to construct a "squeeze" scenario other than the cycle gurus' view - we'll catch up with Brian after payrolls and see what his stuff says then. Strategy, sell EUR/USD 1.3150/1.3325 - be careful being short below 1.2925.
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