EUR/USD and GBP/USD - Monitor Key Support Clusters for Next Week

Topping: After stalling around 1.3830, 61.8% retracement, the EUR/USD retreated faster in reaction to a much expected FOMC statement, which gave USD strength against most major currencies. The EUR/USD slide to 1.35 and cracked it on Friday (11/1). Taking a look at the daily chart, we see that down in the 1.3420-1.3460 area there is support/resistance pivot zone , as well as a rising speedline coming up from July's low of 1.2754.

Upside from support cluster: This week's price action shows the market has flattened if not in bearish reversal. However, in the short-term expect some support above 1.3360. With a neutral to bearish short-term (day to day) outlook that can be turning into the medium term (for a week or 2), the bullish outlook off this support should be limited to 1.3645. The stochastic reading suggests there is oversold condition. The RSI is around 40. If it dips to 30, it would reflect some bearish momentum brewing in the daily time-frame.

Gold prices fell as the dollar gained strength on taper expectations and euro weakness

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The spot price of Gold fell 2.72 percent during the past week as the dollar gained strength.  After making a slight gain on Monday, gold fell on gold stocks, ETF, gold, NYSEARCA:GLD, NYSEARCA:IAU, NYSEARCA:SLV, NYSEARCA:AGQ, NYSEARCA:PPLTTuesday and Wednesday as the FOMC monetary policy meeting took place, sparking widespread opinion that the taper could begin in December.

EUR/USD close to two-week lows during late US trade on Friday

The euro traded in proximity to two-week lows against the US dollar during late phase of US session, after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its index of manufacturing activity climbed to the highest level since April 2011, while the euro was still pressured by prospects of a potential rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Having touched a session low at 1.3480 at 14:55 GMT, the pair’s lowest point since October 16th, EUR/USD closed at 1.3492 on Friday, falling 0.68% for the day. Support was likely to be found at October 16th low, 1.3474, while resistance was to be encountered at Friday’s high, 1.3581.

EUR/USD around 1.3670 Before U.S. Jobs Data Later

The U.S. dollar traded 0.2 percent from an eight-month low versus the euro as investors look to employment data due today to help assess the timing for a reduction in Federal Reserve stimulus.

The greenback was poised for a monthly slide against most of its 16 major counterparts ahead of a report that may show the U.S. jobless rate remained above the central bank’s threshold to start scaling back asset purchases. The yen held losses from yesterday versus its peers as demand for safety waned before figures this week that may show consumer-price gains in Japan held near the fastest pace since 2008.

“The Fed tapering this year seems to be off the table,” said Noriaki Murao, the New York-based managing director of the marketing group at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. “A payrolls number that is slightly stronger than expectations may not spur too much dollar buying. The risk is that we would see a bigger negative reaction should the payrolls disappoint.”

EUR/USD: Consolidating below 1.37

Backed off from test of the 1.3700 level though overall tone still firm and further extension to target the 1.3711 high not  ruled out despite overbought readings on intraday tools. Support is at 1.3646  then the 1.3616/00 area. Above 1.3711,   but difficult for now, will see further extension within the 3-mth rising channel.

EUR/USD - Surging higher towards its key resistance at 1.3711

Monitor the test of the key resistance at 1.3711. The medium-term bullish momentum does not show any sign of weakness yet. However, the increasing overbought conditions and the key resistance area given by the long-term declining trendline (around 1.3976) and the psychological threshold at 1.4000 should put a cap to the medium-term upside potential.

Growth Uncertainties could Force the Fed

The can-kicking funding deal means growth uncertainties could force the Fed to refrain from tapering until next year. Pimco's Bill Gross wrote via the company's official Twitter account Thursday that the next debt-ceiling battle set for February, 2014 argues for "no quick taper" and steady yields. "Be fully invested in bonds and stocks," he writes. Hopes of Fed QE sticking around for longer fired up both stocks and Treasurys today. S&P hit an intraday record high while the 10-year yield dropped below 2.6%     

EUR/USD update: not giving back much of the gain

EUR/USD has not been able to do much with the extreme o/b setup on the day. Mkt seems comfortable staying very close to the     session high and not giving back much of the gain despite an extreme o/b condition heading into Fri. If the mkt does see a bigger reaction to this setup, the dip support stands  at 1.3607. Bulls likely trying to stay on board for 1.3711. R.Z

US Tapering

The mere talk of taper had seen investors run from markets which had high current-account deficits and were therefore very much dependent on dollar liquidity." As such, currencies from India, Brazil and Indonesia could get pressured anew. "If they don't undertake fundamental reforms...then the markets will continue to seek to punish the weakest."

INR caught in a perfect storm

INR weakness has accelerated the last few days as India faces a perfect storm of negative factors. With policy measures in the realm of 'no good options', there remains the risk that INR weakness will accelerate further to beyond 70.

The crisis for EM has most affected those with bad fundamentals. India, with its large c/a deficits and high inflation, is close to the top if not at the top of the list. With the Fed likely to taper QE as early as the September FOMC meeting, the market is becoming more averse to EMs that have relied on hot money flows to help finance their c/a deficits.

India’s biggest problem, though, has been itself through the manic and confused response from policymakers. Instead of being proactive, the RBI and FinMin have chosen to be reactive, hoping that the other will be more willing to calm nervous markets. The RBI's attempts at monetary tightening have been seen as temporary and not credible for an economy still facing downside growth risks. The FinMin's measures to bolster more sustainable funding can be put in the category of 'too little too late'.

Euro Briefing

European action was limited but NY managed to spark things up if only slightly. EUR/USD opened NY near 1.3110 & spiked the pair to 1.3070 as USD/JPY lifted-off from 100.00. Bears couldn’t push further as EUR/JPY buys aided to cushion EUR/USD sales. EUR/JPY rallied from 131.07 to 131.35 & allowed EUR/USD to touch 1.3102 ahead of the Philly Fed data. The numbers beat solidly & firmed the USD again. EUR/USD hit a session low of 1.3066 before rebounding. EUR/JPY went on a stop loss run & hit a high of 131.88. EUR/USD lifted from the lows & the rallied picked up steam after Portugal’s govt survived a no confidence vote. The pair briefly traded above 1.3120 but could manage no added gains as EUR/JPY buys subsided. Heading into the close EUR/USD sat near 1.3110 to leave it down only slightly on the day. Another failed attempt to hold below the 200 DMA is encouraging to bulls and suggests dip buyers lurk. Bears are becoming frustrated & a break above the July 11 high may see them relent. Should that high be cleared there is not much resistance until the June highs near 1.3415.

EUR/USD Update

• Softer in Asia led by GBP/USD macro sales USD/JPY bargain hunting 
• No EZ tier on data - expect range trading into Bernanke's testimony
• Momentum studies edge higher with shorter MAs
• Last week's 1.3208 high & 1.3253 falling 20 day upper Bolli resistance
• 1.3107 5 DMA & yesterday's 1.3050 low support       

GBP/USD: FOREX SIGNAL 16 JUL 2013

BUY A GBP/USD 1.5104

take profit 1.5124

stoploss 1.5074

EUR/USD back to mid-range after Fitch's DownGrade

• Bounce off bottom of range stalls ahead of 1.3080-00 offers
• Fitch's downgrade of EFSF to AA+ has pair back to mid-point of s-t range
• Mkt still somewhat directionless for now, hemmed between 100 & 200 DMAs
• Dips sub-1.30 bought, result in long lower wicks on candles, bulls assert a bit
• Stops above 1.3100 may have more impact than stops sub-1.2980/85       

Dollar climbs with Bernanke's Testimony in Focus

       The U.S. dollar climbed Monday with investors looking ahead to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony later in the week.

U.S. retail sales in June rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4%, less than economist expectations of a 0.9% rise, according to data released Monday. Last month's rise was fueled by increases in gasoline prices and auto demand. Separately, the Empire State manufacturing survey for July rose for the second month, posting a reading of 9.5 from 7.8 last month.

The ICE dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six rivals, pared earlier gains after the retail sales data but remained higher than Friday's close. The ICE dollar index was 83.193 in recent trade. It traded at 83.26 earlier Monday and closed at 82.997 late Friday in North America, when the dollar had risen modestly amid euro-zone concerns, but still ended the week down 1.7%.     

EUR/USD - Tight consolidation in Asia

• Tight consolidation in Asia - inside day Fri - China data close to f'casts
• No EZ tier one data - focus on U.S. retail sales & slew of earnings
• Momentum studies head higher - bullish MACD cross
• Rejection of lower Bolli last week targets falling 1.3338 upper band
• Late NY 1.3032/1.3091 range are initial support/resistance       

Euro Briefing

Bears prevailed early for EUR/USD as the USD was firm & risk soft on China's Fin Min stating sub-7% growth isn't a big problem. The pair slipped from 1.3060 at the open & was pushed along as above f/c US PPI spurred Fed taper ideas. Stops at 1.3020 & 1.3000 were hit. Little follow through was seen (1.2999 low) & the mkt was caught short into a soft U. of Michigan report. EUR/USD lifted as intra-day bears covered & EUR buyers against AUD, NZD & GBP emerged. EUR/USD climbed off the lows & cleared sov offers near 1.3060 & 1.3080 on Bullard's dovish stance. Early rumors France was to be downgraded came true. Fitch's downgrade to AA+ from AAA spiked the pair from NY's 1.3092 high to 1.3032 but since Fitch was only catching up to Moody's and S&P mkt reaction was limited. The pair recovered & sat near 1.3065 into the close. A bullish engulfing candle is in place this week after the 1.2740/60 support test failed. RSI is biased up & the US loses some yield advantage. A bounce back to the June highs cannot be ruled out now with such a powerful technical signal.

Majors Daily Forecast 11 July 2013

EUR/USD Trading range: 1.3160 – 1.3055 Trend: Downward Sell at 1.3146 SL 1.3178 TP 1.3069

USD/JPY Trading range: 98.15 – 99.10 Trend: Upward Buy at 98.26 SL 97.94 TP 98.98

GBP/USD Trading range: 1.5185 – 1.5070 Trend: Downward Sell at 1.5172 SL 1.5204 TP 1.5084

USD/CHF Trading range: 0.9400 – 0.9505 Trend: Upward Buy at 0.9410 SL 0.9378 TP 0.9494

The current support/resistance levels are: EUR/USD 1.3069, 1.3040, 1.2992 – 1.3223, 1.3252, 1.3300 USD/JPY 97.545, 97.270, 96.825 – 98.975, 99.250, 99.695 GBP/USD 1.5084, 1.5050, 1.4996 – 1.5260, 1.5294, 1.5348 USD/CHF 0.9326, 0.9294, 0.9242 – 0.9494, 0.9526, 0.9578

Majors Daily Forecast 5 July 2013

EUR/USD Trading range: 1.2915 – 1.2810 Trend: Downward Sell at 1.2901 SL 1.2933 TP 1.2824

USD/JPY Trading range: 100.10 – 101.05 Trend: Upward Buy at 100.22 SL 99.90 TP 100.94

GBP/USD Trading range: 1.5060 – 1.4950 Trend: Downward Sell at 1.5050 SL 1.5082 TP 1.4962

USD/CHF Trading range: 0.9555 – 0.9665 Trend: Upward Buy at 0.9567 SL 0.9535 TP 0.9651

The current support/resistance levels are: EUR/USD 1.2824, 1.2795, 1.2747 – 1.2978, 1.3007, 1.3055 USD/JPY 99.505, 99.230, 98.785 – 100.94, 101.21, 101.66 GBP/USD 1.4962, 1.4928, 1.4874 – 1.5138, 1.5172, 1.5226 USD/CHF 0.9483, 0.9451, 0.9399 – 0.9651, 0.9683, 0.9735

Majors Daily Forecast 3 July 2013

EUR/USD

Trading range: 1.2985 – 1.2885

Trend: Downward

Sell at 1.2975 SL 1.3007 TP 1.2898

USD/JPY

Trading range: 100.50 – 101.45

Trend: Upward

Buy at 100.60 SL 100.28 TP 101.32

GBP/USD

Trading range: 1.5170 – 1.5060

Trend: Downward

Sell at 1.5159 SL 1.5191 TP 1.5071

USD/CHF

Trading range: 0.9485 – 0.9595

Trend: Upward

Buy at 0.9499 SL 0.9467 TP 0.9583

The current support/resistance levels are:

EUR/USD 1.2898, 1.2869, 1.2821 – 1.3052, 1.3081, 1.3129

USD/JPY 99.885, 99.610, 99.165 – 101.32, 101.59, 102.04

GBP/USD 1.5071, 1.5037, 1.4983 – 1.5247, 1.5281, 1.5335

USD/CHF 0.9415, 0.9383, 0.9331 – 0.9583, 0.9615, 0.9667

USD/JPY Uptrend Holds Pips Bellow 100

On the 1 hour chart new upward channel has formed, while on the 3 hour chart quotes are held within wide trading scope. Break above today's top and nearest resistance 99.91 would encourage further recovery of the Dollar. Immediate support is yesterday's bottom at 99.10, and consistent break below it could strengthen the Yen further down towards next target 98.21.

There are no major economic events for Japan today.

Quotes are moving just above the 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating slim bullish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is positive and hesitant, MACD is positive and tranquil, while CCI has crossed up the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving over all light long signals.

Technical resistance levels: 99.91 100.77 101.50

Technical support levels: 99.10 98.21 97.40

The Real Affect of Alcohol

European stocks are expected to open higher

       European stocks are expected to open higher Thursday, with other markets in Europe barely changed. The focus will be on a meeting of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, which is likely to leave both its benchmark interest rate and the size of its asset-purchase program as they are.

"The Bank of England is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged following Sir Mervyn King's penultimate meeting as governor. Mark Carney will take over this role in July, and you get the feeling that most members are not interested in committing to anything until the transition is complete," said Craig Erlam, market analyst at Alpari (UK), in a note to clients.     

EUR/USD Open 1.3158 High 1.3194 Low 1.3070 Close 1.3149

On Wednesday Euro/Dollar increased with 120 pips. The European currency appreciated from 1.3070 to 1.3194 yesterday, matching the positive money flow sentiment at above +21%, closing the day at 1.3149. This morning the Euro is trading quietly, with movements at the upper end of yesterday's range for now.

On the 1 hour chart quotes are back into the range trading, while on the 3 hour chart the downward channel has turned into wide trading scope. Break above the nearest resistance and yesterday's top at 1.3194 may trigger further strengthening of the Euro. Going bellow yesterday's bottom and first support at 1.3070, however, would confirm continuation of the bearish trend, towards next objective downwards 1.2956.

Today's focus is on ECB Monthly Report, and U.S. Jobless claims and Wholesale inventories, at 8, 12:30 and 14 GMT respectively.

Quotes are moving just above the 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating slim bullish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is positive and calm, MACD is positive and inclining upwards, while CCI is in line with the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving over all light long signals.

Technical resistance levels: 1.3194 1.3310 1.3433
Technical support levels: 1.3070 1.2956 1.2832

Euro Briefing

Better than March German Industrial Production data, rosy comments from Germany's Eco Min on output for future months & a German Finance Ministry statement wanting to complete talks on a European resolution mechanism by the summer break had EUR/USD lift off right out of the gate. NY spiked the pair from the 1.3125 open to a high of 1.3194. ECB's Mersch aided to fuel the rally. Mersch stated the ECB is discussing an ABS buying program (MNI) while also stating the chance of deflation is not bigger than 10%-15%. The rally was halted ahead of 1.3200 as mkt chatter touted nothing but offering interest from 1.3200 to 1.3250. Talk of large 1.3200 expiries for the NY cut tomorrow also likely aided to keep bulls in check. Intra-day players began taking profit & the pair steadily slid for most of NY's afternoon to settle near 1.3155. Bulls are encouraged that the pair again fails to hold below the 10 & 21 DMAs. Solid bidding interest 1.3030/50 aids to keep
EUR/USD above the averages. The broad 1.2950-1.3250 range prevails though and until it's broken choppy mkts & short term range traders will prevail.

Power crisis: Pakistan government bans airconditioners

Grappling with power outages across the country, the Pakistan government on Wednesday banned the use of airconditioners in its offices from May 15 and introduced a "summer dress code" for employees.

Caretaker Prime Minister Mir Hazar Khan Khoso decided to impose the ban in all government departments and offices, an official statement said.

Khoso directed authorities to introduce a new dress code for government employees to help them cope with the lack of airconditioning.

The dress code includes white or light coloured shirts and trousers or shalwar-kameez with waist coat.

As a special concession, government employees will be allowed to come to work in "shoes without laces" or "sandals without socks", the statement said.

The ban on airconditioners will come into force on May 15 and continue till "there is substantial improvement in the energy situation".

The Prime Minister's House has already stopped using airconditioners as part of an austerity and conservation drive.

"The measure reflects the resolve of the government to manage the power crisis by management of demand," the statement said.

Authorities were given seven days to implement the ban.

Khoso expressed hope that provincial governments, private institutions and the people would cooperate with his government for energy conservation.

He appealed to people to adopt energy conservation in their homes and workplaces to minimise power cuts.

Power outages have increased across Pakistan with the steady rise in summer temperatures.

There are eight hours of power cuts in Islamabad while many rural areas go without electricity for upto 18 hours a day.

EUR/USD In 90 Pip Range This Week So Far

 
More at http://daily20pips.blogspot.com/2013/01/kate-upton-in-bikini.html

 EUR/USD Open 1.3075 High 1.3132 Low 1.3067 Close 1.3077

On Tuesday Euro/Dollar traded within 65 pip range. The European currency appreciated from 1.3067 to 1.3132 yesterday, matching the positive money flow sentiment at around +16%, closing the day at 1.3077. This morning the Euro is trading quietly, with movements at the lower half of yesterday's range for now.

On the 1 hour chart quotes are back into the range trading, while on the 3 hour chart the downward channel has turned into wide trading scope. Break above the nearest resistance and yesterday's top at 1.3132 may trigger further strengthening of the Euro. Going bellow yesterday's bottom and first support at 1.3067, however, would confirm continuation of the bearish trend, towards next objective downwards 1.2955.

Today's focus is on Germany Industrial production at 10 GMT.

Quotes are moving just above the 20 and in line with the 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating short term slim bullish and medium term neutral pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is neutral and calm, MACD is negative and quiet, while CCI has crossed up the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving over all neutral signals.

Euro Briefing

Early NY bears were spooked as Portugal's 10 year bond issue looked set for solid demand & German Industrial orders for March came in at +2.2% (-0.5% exp). The news awoke a slumbering EUR/USD mkt & the pair spiked up from 1.3078 to a session high of 1.3132. Asian offers in the 1.3140/50 region held bulls in check. The gains were given away a short while later though as the ECB's Weidmann & Noyer stated EZ competitiveness should be improved as a whole, Germany shouldn't be weakened and it is up to other EZ nations to catch up to Germany. The pair slipped to 1.3105. Another leg lower took hold after Japan revised up its nominal GDP for the Oct-Dec quarter. EUR/JPY cleared 129.80 support, hit stop & hit a low of 129.30. EUR/USD broke below 1.3100 support & hit 1.3073. Bounces were limited to 1.3090 & the pair settled near the NY lows. The chop in EUR/USD persists but bears may win out. The pair is below the 10 & 21 DMAs & a doji on the daily candle
suggest sellers lurk. Solid bids still sit near 1.3050 & ahead of 1.3000. If those are cleared, the Apr 24 low comes into play. A break there suggests a test of the April low is due.

Trading Signals: EUR/USD intraday: under pressure

EUR/USD intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1.3115.

Our preference: SHORT positions below 1.3115 with 1.3035 & 1.299 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.3115 will open the way to 1.315 & 1.318.

Comment: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line, the pair stands below its resistance and remains under pressure.

Mersch to EUR: Live long and prosper

It's somewhat less dramatic than when Draghi first pledged to save the euro, but ECB's Mersch is also promising to do what it takes for "the euro to have a long and prosperous life". But he sounds less enthusiastic than Draghi about doing much in terms of policy to ease monetary conditions. A hawk close to the Bundesbank, Mersch warns of the limits of policy, or "pushing on a string." Though the hawks appear to be in the minority now, the level of resistance to further moves indicate Draghi may face an unappealing debate over further action, no matter how ready to act he may be. Here's how the ECB hawks and doves stacked up last year amid the OMT

Trading Signals: EUR/USD intraday: under pressure

EUR/USD intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1.3150.

Our preference: SHORT positions below 1.315 with 1.3075 & 1.3035 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.315 will open the way to 1.318 & 1.322.

Comment: the pair stands below its new resistance and remains on the downside as the RSI is badly directed.

Plane Crashes Into Fort Lauderdale Florida Parking Lot - video

A small plane crashed into a parking lot near a South Florida airport Friday afternoon, killing all three people onboard and burning about a dozen cars. No one on the ground was hurt.
Fire-Rescue Division Chief John San Angelo said the Piper Navajo, a twin-engine turboprop, began experiencing engine trouble shortly after taking off from Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport at about 4:30 p.m.
The plane tried to turn around and make an emergency landing, but it didn't get back to the airport, he said. The plane hit a tree and a fence as it crashed into a parking lot, part of a busy industrial area near blocks and blocks of tightly packed warehouses and stores.
Seven cars and a boat caught fire.

A phishing email in the name of RBI

Next time you get an email from the Reserve Bank of India think again?

An email allegedly from India's central bank, asking denizens to secure their bank account details with the RBI is fake, and an attempt by new-age fraudsters to con people into giving away bank account details and lose hard-earned money, security experts said.

EUR/USD - Enjoy the volatility while it lasts

As we close in on the end of Q1, short term German rates are completing a circuitous trip that saw yields pushed higher by a temporary liquidity squeeze related to LTRO repayments only to fall again under the weight of poor economic data.  It was an anomoly, a blip.  The benchmark 2-yr Schatz is right back where it started the year (and on its 200 day MA) at 0.05%. EURUSD has followed a simliar route; just tagging along for the ride. It's hard to argue much else has mattered. Rates have re-emerged as a major driver of currencies. The ECB may yet cut rates but the reality is that, after such a move, we're back to trading currencies in a ZIRP world and the volatility and wider ranges of the past few months will be a distant memory.

EUR/USD - Consolidation dominates - 1.3150 should cap

• Supported by a marginally softer USD in a quiet Asia 
• EZ IP is event risk in Europe - RTRS poll -0.1%
• Choppy consolidation with in Fri's range set to extend
• Ma's & momentum studies show conflicting signals
• Trend is lower - 100 & 20 dma @ 1.3127/37 should cap
  

EUR/USD - Bear Channel Top halt Gains

Old support from March 8  combines with bear channel top to halt rally
Stops touted above 1.3080 safe for now as pair dips to 10 DMA (1.3046)
Obama reminds mkt of dire EU, says 'they're hungrier for trade deal' than in past
Mkt chatter of Basel name bidding on this dip & aids to support
Daily close above 10 DMA & channel top & mkt will target the 100 DMA

EUR/USD Techs: Offer now at 1.3135 top range

• Seventh day prices have mutually overlapped saps downtrend's momentum
• Tensions are building for either a reversal or trend resumption
• Fri's high, 100-DMA & down TL defined the topside pivot
• Giving the daily and weekly sell signals benefit of the doubt for now
• Lower 10-day Bolli by 1.2950 is the downside pivot on a closing basis
  

Momentum studies are positive: 83 Break to target 84,10 (2012 high)

• Tracks upper Bolli fueled by a string of stronger U.S. data
• Aug range res just below 83.00 held offshore
  
• 5, 10 & 20 dma's trend north with Bolli bands
  
• Momentum studies are positive - trend is your friend

Delhi gangrape case: Prime accused Ram Singh commits suicide

Delhi gangrape prime accused Ram Singh today committed suicide by hanging himself in Tihar Jail.
The incident took place at 5am on March 11, 2013 in jail number 3 of Tihar. His body has been sent for postmortem.
Ram Singh was the driver of the school bus that was allegedly used in the infamous gangrape case wherein the 23-year-old victim, a paramedical student, was also brutally assaulted by the rapists. The victim died in a Singapore hospital December 29, 2012. 
Ram Singh was arrested along with his brother and four others, including a minor, hours after the crime. He and his co-accused have also faced fellow inmates' ire after being lodged into Tihar Central Jail.

EUR after ECB meeting

The ECB caught a few people on the wrong side of the rate cut debate today. This sent EUR off to the races, trampling rate futures in the process. Life is full of little setbacks, but this one is unlikely to last. Markets will have to price in the risk of an ECB cut until something dramatically alters the growth outlook. The specter of crisis still haunts Europe and the ECB's own staff project a mild contraction this year. It's hardly the environment to stave off rate cut speculation.

Facebook unveils 'mobile first', picture-friendly newsfeed

Facebook Inc introduced a visually richer, mobile device-oriented "newsfeed" on Thursday, in the most significant changes to date for the social network's most recognizable feature. 

The changes to the newsfeed, whose look and feel has remained largely unchanged since its inception, include a division into several sections, with separate areas for photographs and music. 

The overhaul, which standardizes the feed across mobile devices and desktop computers, is designed to keep users active and interacting as well as appeal to advertisers, as Facebook battles Google Inc for Internet market share. 

CEO Mark Zuckerberg had singled out the feature as in need of a makeover as recently as January, when the company introduced "graph search" to address inadequacies in allowing users to trawl for information across the world's largest social network. 

Facebook's newsfeed, an ever-changing stream of photos, videos and comments uploaded from friends, is the first page most users see upon logging in. It is one of three "pillars" of the service, along with search and user profiles. 

EUR/AUD: Positive News, but trend is low

• S&P upgraded Portuguese outlook to neutral
• Aus trade data came in weak - cross little changed
• Market expects dovish ECB tonight
• Momentum studies , 5, 10 & 20 dma's trend lower
• 100 dma @ 1.2614 is initial & 5 dma @ 1.2726 sup/res
  

EUR/USD: Down Trend remains in place

• Since early Feb high, strong downtrend has been contained by a channel
• Key 1.30 level tested - in line with last major low on Jan 4
• Potentially a lasting low in place already - though bulls should be patient
• Any further downside likely to find stiff support at 200 day MA
• If price holds above down channel (circa 1.315) then get long       

EUR/USD technicals: Ichimoku cloud base weighs at 1.3114

• Break below 1.2982 (Monday's low) needed to weaken intra-day structure
• There are a multitude of resistance levels above 1.3100
•   Ichimoku Cloud base @ 1.3114 weighs
  

EUR/USD takes out 100-day moving average, a bullish sign

With the Euro's swift move in the past few days following Italy's elections, traders jumping into the market, especially those placing bets with low conviction, are likely opting for tight stop-loss orders, says Steven Englander of Citigroup. "If you've gone short or long with low conviction, you keep a tight stop," he says. That can lead to some whipsaw movements in the market. The euro bounds higher and breaks to a session high Wednesday afternoon as it takes out its 100-day moving average of $1.3126. The euro was most recently at $1.3130, according to EBS via CQG. A clear break and hold above that 100-day moving average for the rest of the day could be a signal of a near-term rebound for the euro. EUR/USD up about 0.5% on day; EUR/JPY motors even further, up 0.85%.

Cops throw old couple off moving Shatabdi Express, woman dies

A woman died after she and her husband were pushed out of running Shatabdi Express allegedly by Railway Protection Force (RPF) personnel today. 
Santosh and her husband Rajeshwar Dutt Tyagi, who had purchased general class tickets, inadvertently boarded the Delhi-Dehradun Shatabdi Express, according to a complaint filed at the Government Railway Police Station.
The complaint, lodged by Rajeshwar, alleged the two RPF personnel on duty, after heated arguments, pushed them out of the train soon after it left the station. 
Santosh fell on the track and was run over by the Shatabdi Express while Rajeshwar escaped unhurt.

According to Rajeshwar, he and his wife were on way to Deoband in Saharanpur district to attend a funeral ceremony but boarded the Shatabdi Experss by mistake.

Euro Briefing

EUR/USD opened close to the upper end of Asia's rough 1.3040-80 range, and continued to rise through the European session. The main event was Italy's bond auction and demand for euros ahead of the results was evidence of decent cover. However, EUR/USD failed again around 1.3120 (100-DMA 1.3125)with sovereign and US investment banks sellers carrying the pair back down around 40 ticks. The auction proceeded okay, largely expected as domestic players were tipped with enough demand to take all the euros offered, but at the expense of higher yields. Continued spread widening between Germany and U.S. is favouring the dollar. EUR/USD upticks will likely remain muted while this is the case.

EUR/USD - Bears persist as earlier rally sold into

Bounce off 1.3018 stalls ahead of 1.3120, Asian stops just above remain safe
Offers build 1.3140 then  more 1.3160-90 aids to weigh on the pair
Some intra-day stops tripped through 1.3065 more likely through 1.3050
Price below the 38.25 Fib of 1.2042-1.3711, daily & weekly RSI biased down
Bids remain ahead of 1.300, if cleared 50% Fib of 1.2042-1.3711 next target
Fib level aligns with Dec lows near 1.2875/80

EUR/USD: Strong Trading Trends target 1.3000

• Marginal new trend low ahead of European open
• Italian political stalemate undermines
• No major EZ data to impact on negative sentiment
• All eyes on news wires for Italian political updates
• Bearish outside day & fresh lows weighs       

• EUR/USD sees a fresh 1.3039 low in Asia, EUR/JPY bought then sold.
• EUR/USD bids pre-1.3000, optionality tipped, stops eyed below.
• Close below 1.3032 base of Ichimoku cloud seen very bearish.       

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Euro traders caught leaning wrong way on Italy

Optimism about Italy's elections gives way to uncertainty, catching traders flat footed. "We're seeing very dramatic price action because expectations were leaning a different way just 12 hours ago," says Matthew Alexy, director of global forex at TD Securities New York. EUR now trading close to where it was before ECB's Draghi indicated in January that the euro zone may've pulled through the worst of the crisis. One of the most popular trades this year has been long euro/short yen, but those bets unwinding today has caused JPY to strengthen sharply after earlier touching its lowest level since May 2010, Alexy says. Euro at Y121.74 from Y1.2316 late Friday, according to EBS via CQG.

EUR/USD - Offer at 1.3245: Weekly reversal likely today

• Weekly reversal in play with a close below 1.3334 today
  
• Intraday rebound capped by the upper 21-hr Bolli & lower band in play since
  
• 100-DMA & 21-WMA prop by 1.3115-20; ended the correction in Nov
  
• Fade by day's high or Pivot off key MAs below
  

Rate spreads keep slipping EUR/USD

With rate spreads showing signs of exerting stronger influence, EUR/USD will stay under pressure. As the reaction to the lower LTRO repayment showed, lower euro zone short-term rates are leading increasingly to euro weakness. The 60-day correlation has strengthened to -0.89 (widening US-EZ yield spreads leading to a weaker EUR/USD), among the strongest levels over the past few years. Asia c.bank diversification into the euro is not as strong as it used to be, and the demise of risk-on/risk-off means that local macro factors (think JPY and GBP) are now the driving forces. With the euro zone stuck in recession and ECB needing to do more just as the Fed's hawks become more assertive, rate spreads are likely to keep favouring USD over EUR.